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J-20: Some Questions Answered

The first flight of the Chinese J-20 “Black Eagle” stealth fighter prototype on Jan. 11, 2010, provides growing proof of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s (PLAAF’s) intent to field a stealthy, fifth-generation air superiority fighter in the decade ahead. That many military analysts are surprised by the sudden emergence of the aircraft is just another sign that China remains a mystery to most observers. That said, the revelations of the past few weeks have answered a few questions:

1. Is the J-20 real? –Despite years of questions and doubts by western observers, especially those in the military intelligence community, the J-20 is clearly quite real. Recent photos and amateur video showing taxi tests clearly showed heat shimmer from the engine exhausts, meaning that this was no plywood mockup. Furthermore, the size and shape of the J-20 looked right, given what U.S. designers have produced since the 1970s. Remember that the F-117A Nighthawk was larger than the F-15 Eagle, and the F-22A Raptor even larger. At the same time, the laws of electromagnetic physics are identical in China to those in the United States, so similarities between stealth aircraft designs should be expected, not surprising. And, of course, it has now been captured in flight on video.

2. What is the J-20 designed to be? – A close look at the photos and videos of the

The J-20 is a very large aircraft for a single-seater, but stealth demands are such that its size does not necessarily indicate its role. Via Chinese Internet

J-20 show it to have planform and design details similar to a number of U.S. stealth fighter designs, including the F-22A Raptor, the F-35 Lightning, and the prototype YF-23 Black Widow. Several features clearly stand out. The absence of any sort of electro-optical (E/O) targeting system or sensor apertures makes it likely that the J-20 is primarily an air-to-air platform, with limited ground attack capabilities. In addition, the stowage of fuel and ordnance appears to be exclusively internal, showing a genuine commitment to maintaining the stealthy signature of the J-20 in combat.

3. How Stealthy is the J-20? – One reality of producing really stealthy systems is that the low-observable features must be incorporated from the beginning of the design process. Stealth is all about the details, and here the Chinese appear to have done a good job on the J-20 prototype. The lack of E/O apertures which show anywhere from the front and side quarters, along with the classic stealthy “chine” joining of the upper and lower fuselage, mean that the J-20 is likely to have similar radar cross section (RCS) measurements from those angles as the F-117A and possibly even the F-35A. Where the Chinese designers do not appear to care about the signature of the J-20 is from the stern aspect. Unlike the F-117A, F-22A, or B-2A Spirit, there are no treatments to lower the RCS or infrared signature of the J-20’s engines in the rear quarter, something that was likely not that important to the PLAAF. Their operational concept for the J-20 likely resembles that of the CIA and USAF operating the Lockheed A-12/SR-71A Blackbirds from the 1960s to the 1990s, flying high and fast on approach to targets, then dashing away and trusting to defensive geometry on egress to defeat enemy defensive missiles.

4. How soon, and how many J-20s? – As difficult as it is to design fifth-generation combat aircraft, manufacturing, deploying, and supporting such planes is another challenge entirely. Anyone who has had the chance to examine traditional Russian/Chinese production aircraft knows that quality control, along with fit and finish, can be marginal at times. Therefore, if the J-20 is to perform as a true stealth fighter, it will need to be built by a team of manufacturing professionals different from any previously seen in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This will likely mean higher salaries, bonuses, and much improved working conditions over workers in other aircraft plants around the PRC. It therefore would not be surprising if production/life cycle costs on J-20s are two to three times what a PRC-built J-11 (Su-27/30 Flanker) would be. While this will probably limit the total number of J-20s produced and fielded, they are likely to be first-class aircraft with more capability than anything except F-22s/35s.

In fact, the J-20 is a product of the logical evolution of the PLAAF, which long ago committed itself to improving to first-class status among the world’s air forces. And from the look of the J-20 prototype, they are well on their way to that goal.

By

John D. Gresham lives in Fairfax, Va. He is an author, researcher, game designer, photographer,...

    li class="comment even thread-even depth-1" id="comment-476">

    Just another sign China is flexing their muscles. I can’t help but feel North America helped China through education at our universities and foreign investment in their industries.

    Would they have ended up with this technology? Probably, but possibly not as soon without importing information from North America.

    li class="comment odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1" id="comment-484">

    Please click on either Google or Yahoo on “J-20 Kopp” and see what a true blue expert, Dr Kopp from APA (Air Power Australia) says about J-20.

    F-35 JSF can never come close to match J -20.

    li class="comment even thread-even depth-1" id="comment-490">

    Mr Tan.

    I was impressed the first time I read Kopp too, until I read other sources and learned of his political positions. While he has some valid points, I hesitate to take everything that Dr. Kopp says as gold. He is motivated by views that serve to greatly slew his opinions (one being that anything but the F-22 for RAAF is pointless). How can anyone make such a claim about a prototype aircraft that we know so little about? Does it have a engine worthy of a 5th gen fighter (even Russia does have one for it’s PAK-FA yet!)? Does it have a DAS anywhere approaching the AN/AAQ-37 of the F-35? Does if have an AESA radar with sufficient range and LPI to best the F-35s AN/APG-81? Does it have an EOTS that can passively detect better than the F-35? Is there any reason to believe that the J-20 will be stealthier than the F-35 (lack or trailing edge planform alignment, overall lack of rear quadrant stealth, fact that it is China’s first attempt)? Has China as of yet proven that it has the precision manufacturing to build an aircraft to the extreme tolerances required for stealth? Does the J-20 have secure datalinks? Can the J-20 manage its full spectrum of emissions so as not to be passively detected? So far as anyone can tell, the answer to all of these questions is, at the moment, a resounding ‘NO’.

    While kinematics will always be incredibly relevant, air combat in the 21st century is about much more than that. Stealth, sensors, network centric warfare, cyber and electronic attack, etc are becoming huge. It is not 1 fighter versus another. It is about which fighter can more effectively accomplish the mission in an integrated environment. It’s about how well each aircraft fits into and can support the larger the CONOPS. Here is some reading that might give you another perspective.

    Rebuttal to Dr. Kopp (primarily related to Sukhoi but still relevent for our discussion)
    http://ozzyblizzard.blogspot.com/2008/12/air-power-australia-flanker-analysis.html

    About 21st Century CONOPS
    http://www.sldinfo.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/SpecialReporton21stConOpsofAirOperations.pdf

    Respectfully