Defense Media Network

The Air Force of 2030

Experts look and guess

“We’ve moved beyond the bulky chemical laser and toward a solid-state foundation for lasers and other directed-energy weapons,” said analyst Grant.

Hypersonic Vehicle

DARPA imagery of simulated flight of a hypersonic vehicle. Will hypersonic flight be the stealth of the future? Image courtesy of DARPA

Consider a warning, detection, and directed-energy system that may be a precursor. To protect large aircraft against heat-seeking missiles, the Air Force has had good success with AAR-54 PMAWS (Passive Missile Approach Warning System) sensors that detect the threat and cue a companion AAQ-24 Nemesis DIRCM (Directional Infrared Counter Measures), aiming it to fire at the seeker heads of the incoming missiles. Without fanfare, the AAR-54 and AAQ-24 duo appeared quietly in 2011 on the two VC-25As, or Boeing 747-200s, that carry the president using the call sign Air Force One.

According to analyst John A. Gourley, “When a hostile missile is fired at aircraft equipped with AAR-54 PMAWS and AAQ-24 DIRCM turrets, the AAR-54 detects the hot exhaust plume of the inbound weapon, much as the current and upgraded AAR-47 does. [AAR-47 was the first-generation sensor seen on many aircraft today]. These sensors are in fixed positions around the fuselage of the airframe, and stare into the airspace, providing 360 degrees of coverage. The sensor determines the angle and approach vector, and signals the AAQ-24 Nemesis system to aim in the sector and fire an intense beam of electronic energy sufficient to overload and overwhelm the seeker head of the missile, causing it to lose lock and fly harmlessly past the target aircraft. It has a high reliability rate and also can handle multiple threats with a high reset rate, say if a volley of missiles were fired to bring down a large aircraft. Many aircraft such as the V-22 and C-130 have this system, which is coming into widespread use.”

“Directed energy is just one of many new technologies that show enormous potential,” said Deptula, who added that directed energy weapons could be part of the U.S. offensive arsenal in the Air Force of 2030.

Boeing Next-generation Bomber

Boeing imagery of a next-generation bomber dating from 2008. A new bomber would be part of a family of long-range strike systems. Boeing rendering

It’s a sure bet that over the next couple of decades, the Air Force will look further at gas dynamic lasers, including non-lethal lasers designed to stun or dazzle, high-energy radio-frequency weapons, and even a microwave gun. The directed energy concept will see numerous variations. In 2009, Northrop Grumman announced that its engineers in Redondo Beach, Calif., had successfully built and tested an electric laser capable of producing a 100-kilowatt ray of light, powerful enough to destroy cruise missiles, artillery shells, rockets, and mortar rounds. If the nation can continue to afford to develop, test, and innovate, and even to set aside those ideas that need to be tried before being rejected, directed energy weapons will be a key part of the future Air Force.

 

Forward Into the Future

Among changes in the future will be a complete revamping of acquisition procedures. “We’re focused now on cost per unit platform,” said Deptula. “We should be looking at cost per unit effect. We need to help the Air Force find its mojo in being innovative and in measuring results rather than pieces of hardware.”

As for other developments, according to Deptula, “Changes to the Air Force in 2030 will not all be easily visible. But we’re on the cusp of a big change from a 20th to a 21st century way of doing business.

“We’ll have different concepts of operations,” said Deptula. “We’ll be much more connected. There will be much more networking. Everything we use will be used in an integrated fashion. Our aircraft of all sizes will become flying sensor nodes. And we’ll be linked with sea-based and space-based assets. We can be just as strong as we are today with fewer systems.”

ISR will be part of that story. Said Grant: “This Air Force has made ISR one of its primary pillars. It is starting to reap the fruits of some investment in a wide range of unusual technologies  – airships, unmanned aerial vehicles.”

The familiar and the unfamiliar: That’s the Air Force of the future. And it all depends on the policies our leaders put into place. The time to plan for 2030 is now.

This article was first published in Defense: Summer 2012 Edition.

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Robert F. Dorr is an author, U.S. Air Force veteran, and retired American diplomat who...